Happy New Year to all bloggers from first ever blogging central bank (deputy) governor.
2008 will bring many surprises. Let me list a few that I expect:
- Agflation will hit real bad. Our grandchildren economists will make Ph.Ds comparing monetary policy reactions to oil price shocks (oilflation) in 1970-80s to the monetary policy reaction to agflation in 2007-2009 (or even 2010).
- World growth will remain much stronger than most people expected in late 2007, globalization of business processes made world economy much more resilient to shocks
- USA will have first female or black president, which will mark a beginning of the new era in world politics
- Oil will break through 100 dollars and will approach 200 (after a series of bad climate, politics, accident, positive growth surprises news)
- Emerging markets will continue to outperform core markets, China will soar (!!!) as more and more funds will reallocate to China to reflect long-term geopolitical shift from US_Europe to China
- China IPOs will remain world highest, and will be higher than expected
- Asian and Middle East SWFs will continue shopping on a large scale, with particular focus on depressed western finance sector, energy sector, new technology
- Oil exporting states and China will create special funds to “buy” best western minds (finance, engineering, biotechnology, knowledge management, etc.)
- USA and China will embark on the first giants’ duel, and the testing field will be Iran (Chinese investments in energy sector versus Israel political interests)
- Knowledge blogs will replace newspapers as the most reliable source of knowledge and information
- Following Israel some 20-30 emerging market countries will produce intellectual capital reports, which will lead to better strategic decisions.
- European Union will continue its “destructive creation”, which stands for million internally contradictory actions and lack of strategic direction.
You should be able to verify my forecasts at the end of 2008. I am also planning to make some changes in my professional life, you will find out soon. I plan to blog regularly, with new post every day around 16:00 Warsaw time, 15:00 London time, 10:00 New York time and 23:00 Bali time. Sharp, focused and no limits.