NBP organized the conference “Monetary Policy Challenges Resulting from the Rapid Credit Growth in Converging Economies”. I had a speech outlining challenges on the road to euro. Conclusions are below:
“Summing up, with the inflation headwind expected in the coming few years CEE central banks will face a possibly steep sacrifice ratio when controlling inflation. Keeping inflation at the target consistent with EMU accession may require sizeable reduction of the output gap, which in turn may make fiscal targets difficult to achieve.
Tail wind of globalization appears to be fading in the coming few years and if agflation or surge in other commodity prices materializes, joining EMU may become “mission impossible” for many CEE countries in the next few years. The window of opportunity created by global inflation “tail wind” might have closed in 2007.”
You can also find here my speech summarizing the main findings of the papers presented at the conference (thanks to Ms Stazka for preparing the speech).