I will speak today on the New World Order at the conference organized by the British embassy in Warsaw. My speech is here.
My recommendations are below:
- The Global Strategic Council that I propose should be formed by leaders of 8-10 biggest countries. The metric used to rank countries should be very simple and intuitive, it should be country GDP according to purchasing power parity divided by global GDP and country population divided by global population, each with 50% weight. 8-10 countries with highest scores should form the new group of G8 or G10 and should establish the Global Strategic Council. Vision and strategy agreed by the Council should be shared and implemented by the biggest countries, while others will follow on a voluntary basis. There should be incentives to ensure that no country will chose to opt-out (possibly with rare exceptions of countries such as North Korea, Myanmar, Cuba or Belarus). An innovative proposal how such incentives should be designed, that adopts Strategic Asset Allocation methodology from the world of finance, is presented in the recent book Rybinski, Opala, Holda (2008) “Gordian knots of the 21st century”.
- Global Strategic Council would seem an outside-the-box idea to many politicians, especially those whose mindset was shaped by the 20th century and who failed to notice how fast the world has changed. I documented in this speech that the failed global governance and lack of global vision produced many global Gordian knots. Traditional methods will fail to untie them and we do need Alexandrian solutions.
- Every four years the National Intelligence Council – which oversees America’s baroque collection of intelligence agencies – releases a global trends report, which is given to the new president. The latest report , published on 20th November stated that “the most dramatic difference” between the new report and the one issued four years ago is that it now foresees a world in which the US plays a prominent role in global events, but the US is seen as one among many global actors.”. The report issued four years ago had projected “continuing US dominance”. The heart of US security establishment has acknowledged that global landscape had changed. It is high time indeed to reflect this change in the new global governance setup. The New World Order should be established.
Comments are very warmly welcome.