I love long-term forecasting. As opposed to forecasting inflation one year out, when after 12 months everybody can verify whether you were right or wrong, forecast going 10 years out is safe. By the time the date comes nobody remembers your forecast.

I hope that someone will start a website, when you can take really long-term bets. Suppose you say something will happen in 10 years, and there is someone that has the opposite view. Both sides deposit some money, that gets invested in line with some rules (world portfolio for example) and when the long-term comes, the winner takes takes it all (minus service  commission). This would enable hedging some types of risks for companies and individuals and will certainly be welfare enhancing.

My long term bet for today is that in less than 15 years Chinese equity markets will dwarf US equity markets. Not only biggest world IPO will be placed there (and of course in the coming decade biggest IPOs and SPOs will be from China and India) but also western companies will use China as a source of capital. The model that savings chases investment will gradually be combined with model when investment comes to where the saving are. And the world savings are in Asia.

Take a look at recent FT article . A quote is below:

“China has agreed to lift a moratorium on overseas entry into its increasingly lucrative securities sector but has yet to detail what type of business foreigners will be able to do, beyond underwriting new share issuances.

China has also delayed announcing how much equity foreigners would be allowed to hold in brokerages – currently 33 per cent – saying that regulators would report before the next meeting in June. The US wants the cap lifted to 49 per cent.

China did agree to allow foreign investors in China to list on local stock markets and to issue local currency bonds”

By the way, I believe that most people understimate the risk of food inflation (agflation) in the next few years. This forecast will be verified next year. About my China long-term forecast, well let me know when you find that the betting website exists and it is credible enough to last for 15 years.